Building Conviction
Through Deep Research

Eight years ago, I started my investment journey with a simple question:
What are the core drivers that shape our economic and financial landscape?

This led me to adopt a top-down approach – avoiding the noise of daily financial media and instead building deep conviction in investment themes before entering any position.

Early on, I discovered the work of Ray Dalio on long-term and short-term debt cycles, and Neil Howe's Fourth Turning Generational Theory – understanding that financial markets, and even society itself, move in cycles. There are seasons to investing, just like there are seasons within a year and even to life.

I dove deep into macroeconomics and the business cycle, learning from Raoul Pal that regardless of your conviction in an investment, there are always favorable conditions and headwinds. But here's the key insight: headwinds are advantages. When others lack conviction or liquidity, they become weak hands. They sell to those who built conviction through deep research – at much cheaper prices. That's how you capture asymmetric upside.

Over time, I became increasingly focused on finding investments with exceptional risk/reward ratios – opportunities where the market had priced in very little, but the upside was massive once the thesis played out. No matter how much you allocate to these investments, the massive upside allows for outperformance - even with small allocations.

This became especially apparent when I entered Bitcoin in 2019, Ethereum in 2020, Solana in 2022, Coinbase and Pudgy Penguins in 2023, Tesla in 2024 and PENGU in 2025. I noticed that many investors in this space lacked a clear framework to weather the immense volatility. They'd get shaken out or fail to hold their winners, missing venture-like returns. Additionally, you dont have to be right all the time. A few times per year there is free money on the floor. Pick it up, and see outperformance.

The combination of macro understanding – knowing the large forces driving our world, economy, and financial landscape – with the tireless study of digital assets and frontier technologies became the foundation of my investment firm, MAJOR KEY Capital. Only now are we entering a new endavour as boutique research brand to open-source our in-house investment frameworks.

But at our core, we are a thesis-driven investment firm.